Brave new world

It is a brave new world! Here isn’t speaking in the technological sense of Aldous Huxley’s famous 20^th Century epic with that title, but in electoral terms. And the prompt in this instance is Euro star, Germany, which last week fell into rank with countries buckling under an upswell of nationalist fervour sweeping the world.

Twelve years on in office, Chancellor Angela Merkel headed up with a fourth term win in the German elections held penultimate weekend. But the poll also marked the worst showing for her Christian Democrats (CDU)-Christian Social Union (CSU) bloc since 1949 when national elections were first held in the country after World War Two. And the poll as well threw up in power right-wing nationalists banded as Alternative für Deutschland, AfD (meaning: Alternative for Germany) for the first time in the country’s post-World War history. The catch is: with the country’s Nazi antecedents, that development triggers some alarm in the German establishment. 

AfD’s surge in German politics cozies up to the high tide of nationalism indexed by the United Kingdom’s Brexit referendum in June, last year, and the shock victory of narcissistic President Donald Trump in the United States in November. Even France momentarily reeled under the tide in its two-round presidential election this year as nationalist candidate Marine Le Pen gave the eventual winner, independent centrist Emmanuel Macron, his stiffest challenge.

Germany’s electoral system is parliamentary, and the governments are conventionally formed from coalition deals. To get into the 709-seat federal parliament known as the Bundestag, a party must garner at least five percent of the votes cast in an election – obviously with the largest party in parliament holding the Chancellorship.

AfD debuted in 2013 and had taken its chance with that year’s poll, but fell just shy of the stipulated threshold for entering parliament with 4.7 percent votes. In the latest election, however, the xenophobic party broke through into power with 12.6 percent of the votes cast. It only trailed Merkel’s CDU/CSU bloc, which netted 33 percent of the votes cast – a loss of 8.5 percent of voter support in comparison with 2013 results; and the current coalition partner in Merkel’s government, the Social Democrats (SPD), which came off with 20.5 percent votes – dipping 5.2 percent below its 2013 standing.

My fascination with the recent German election is how totally voters’ will formed the reference point that guided politicians’ understanding of their mandate and dictated their next steps. While Merkel won another term, for instance, it was widely recognised that her victory was hollow and in real terms a defeat in disguise. She has a tough call ahead cobbling together a viable coalition government, and may be compelled to call another election if her efforts fall through. Meanwhile, she is fully on terms with her party’s loss being AfD’s gain, because it seemed sufficiently apparent that voters backlashed on her open-border disposition towards refugees and immigrants. In what was touted as her victory address last Monday, a crestfallen Merkel said she would listen to the “concerns, worries and anxieties” of AfD voters – one million of whom she noted deserted her party – so to win them back. “I want to look for the conversation in order to tackle hate and rage, but there are some people who don’t want to listen to anything at all at the moment. We have to accept that,” she added.

Her current coalition partners, the Social Democrats, for their part considered their poor showing in the election a mandate to opt out of government and block the prospects of AfD becoming the main opposition party. SDP leader Martin Schulz said the party had been given “a mandate to be a strong opposition in this country, a mandate to defend democracy against all those who question and attack it.”

AfD naturally sees its mandate differently. The party understands its propulsion into power to be a vote to fight “invasion by foreigners.” The co-leader, Alexander Gauland, told a news conference after the vote: “One million people – foreigners – being brought into this country are taking away a piece of this country and we as AfD don’t want that. We say, ‘I don’t want to lose Germany to an invasion by foreigners from a different culture.’ Very simple.”

Even prospective new coalition partners of Chancellor Merkel, who incidentally were rear guarders in the election, are sounding off on their accountability to voters. There is the talk of a “Jamaica coalition” being the most feasible scenario: so-called because of the likely partners’ official colours, which are the colours of Jamaica’s national flag. There is black of the CDU/CSU; yellow of the Free Democrats (FDP), which got 10.7 percent of the votes; and the Greens with their 8.9 percent vote harvest. But the FDP and the Greens differ fundamentally on a number of issues in nationhood conversation and insist on staying true to their voters, making the feasibility of their becoming coalition partners in government a tall rule. “Whoever gets into bed with this Chancellor (Merkel) will perish there,” FDP’s Thomas Kemmerich said.

The moral in all these is that the fixation of the German political elite with what they considered the will of voters is what makes democracy pulse. It is instructive, for instance, that none of the political actors cried foul over the outcomes, blame their showing on vote stealing by co-contenders, or ply conspiracy theories that loop the election managers in with devious riggers. And neither, as it seem apparent, do they consider getting a hold on power an end in itself; it all boils down to what the voters want done with their country.

There is little question our political culture is light-years away in the antediluvian axis, and it should be the day when we come round to the civilisation of voter supremacy

Nigeria marked its 57^th year of Independence yesterday and the country is 18 years into the present political republic, and we could well fantasise on what it would be like for us to step into the electoral brave new world. There is little question our political culture here is light-years away in the antediluvian axis, and it should be the day when we come round to the civilisation of voter supremacy as we glimpsed in the German poll. Of course, I must acknowledge that in climes like ours, that supremacy is contingent on the conduct of the political class and just as well the election managers. But where we observe progressive efforts on the part of election managers to upgrade the system, does onus not devolve back on the political elite to likewise recalibrate?

A present indication of the charade that is the Nigerian democracy is the humongous duel being fought by Dino Melaye, representing Kogi West senatorial district in the Senate, to frustrate a bid by his constituents to recall him. The senator sees the imprint of his political enemies all over the bid, and he is perfectly entitled to the view. But he would not even allow the petition seeking his recall to be reality-checked by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) in accordance with statutory provisions. Only last week, he resorted to playing the artful dodger when the commission assayed to serve him a notice of the petition and signatures of aggrieved constituents. And so, even though he attended the day’s Senate plenary, he was nowhere in sight to receive the documents when INEC officials called at the National Assembly.

Melaye’s obvious endgame is to stall the recall bid with complexified litigation that would outlast the lifespan of the current legislature. But you could well ask whose mandate he is fighting to protect, and from who.