Insurgency, and morning after

Before our eyes, the 12-year-long insurgency in northeast Nigeria is unravelling. Boko Haram fighters and their dependents have burrowed out of hiding places and surrendered in droves to the Nigerian military; it was estimated that 2,000 handed themselves over to army units in southern Borno State towns of Konduga, Bama and Mafa in recent weeks. The bombings that mainly characterised the insurgency have largely ceased, and it seems quite apparent that the fighters have lost enthusiasm or, at least, have been considerably degraded. There’s a break in the insurgency and you could feel it.

If the trend holds steady, it will be a major feat by the Muhammadu Buhari presidency comparable to the de-arming of Niger Delta militants by the late President Umaru Yar’Adua’s administration between 2009 and early 2010. The military have been in bragging mood and, yes, they earned it. The “massive surrendering” of Boko Haram and Islamic State of West Africa Province (ISWAP) terrorists is the result of “recent escalation of offensive operations coupled with non-kinetic efforts by troops of Operation Hadin Kai,” Army spokesman Brigadier-Gen. Onyema Nwachukwu said in a triumphant statement early last week. Ceremonies were staged where troops handed out food and clothes to subdued men holding up placards in English, some of which read: ‘Nigerians, please forgive us,’ ‘Peace is the only way,’ and ‘Surrender and live.’

Even the terrorists’ chief bomb expert, Musa Adamu (aka Mala Musa Abuja), and his second-in-command, Usman Adamu (aka Abu Darda), along with their families and followers gave in to troops in Bama council area of Borno State. Hundreds more fighters reportedly surrendered across the border in neighbouring Cameroon. But besides military firepower, informed sources also linked the trend to ‘soft war’ being waged through campaign jingles, advocacy by religious scholars, and engagement of insurgents’ family members and friends to enlighten and persuade them against the course of terrorism.

Analysts argued, however, that the rash of surrenders may signpost a tipping point in the power struggle within the insurgency and a shift to a more dangerous phase, rather than military victory over the insurgents. A news journal, The New Humanitarian (TNH), cited some analysts saying the defections have more to do with the death of Boko Haram leader, Abubakar Shekau, last May. Shekau had assumed Boko Haram leadership in 2009 following the killing of its founder, Mohammed Yusuf, and had steered the group into bloody insurgency characterised by mass kidnappings and use of suicide bombers for massacres. Although ISWAP shared the broad objectives of destruction of the secular state, creation of a polity based on Islamic law and termination of Western influence, it objected to Shekau’s methods and broke off from Boko Haram in 2016, pledging allegiance to international terror group, the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS). ISWAP is known to be headed by Abu Musab al-Barnawi, who has a less predatory approach to the insurgency. Since the 2016 split, relations between the two factions varied from tactical cooperation to deadly confrontation, especially so with Shekau being Yusuf’s recognised successor while al-Barnawi is his (Yusuf’s)  son. The power struggle peaked in May with a siege on Shekau’s Sambisa forest base by ISWAP fighters who reportedly demanded that he swear an oath of allegiance to al-Barnawi, which he refused to do and consequently detonated a suicide vest on himself to avoid being taken alive, going by reports. Some Boko Haram fighters shifted allegiance to al-Barnawi in the wake of Shekau’s death, while those who refused were given a deadline to comply or be hunted down and killed. These, analysts argued, are the ones heading to army bases and giving themselves up.

“The apparent break in Boko Haram insurgency is one big relief, but it isn’t the end of Nigeria’s insecurity woes.”

TNH reported notable journalist with expertise on the insurgency, Ahmad Salkida, saying the Boko Haramists do not have weaponry to confront ISWAP, so their best option is to surrender and, at least, get their families taken care of. “The conflict in the northeast may get a lot tougher (for the security forces) after the rainy season. ISWAP is consolidating, it’s making sure it’s the only armed non-state actor in the region,” Salkida stated. Other analysts argued that the wave of surrenders is as well ideological. TNH quoted civil society leader and director of the Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD), Idayat Hassan, saying: “They are quitting because they can’t raid – they can’t steal – like they used to. All that was acceptable is no longer the case in (ISWAP’s) new normal.” She added: “(The defectors) are saying they can’t understand the ideology of ISWAP. It’s not something they recognise.” The justification for Boko Haram’s bombing campaigns that targeted victims, including Moslem faithful, over the years was Shekau’s ‘takfiri’ creed which prescribed that only those living in his sphere be spared and everyone else regarded as an infidel to be killed. But ISWAP has long rejected the creed. “That’s why the bomb-maker cannot stay with ISWAP. That’s why he has surrendered,” TNH reported another source, a former senior jihadist commander who defected in 2019 as part of a clandestine programme known as ‘Sulhu,’ saying. ‘Sulhu’ is a programme operated by the Department of State Security (DSS) under which it engages ex-insurgents on monthly stipend to contact insurgents remaining in the bush and persuade them to leave.

Whatever was their motivation, terrorists have been surrendering. But the apparent break in the insurgency hasn’t been without a sour aftertaste, as critics contrasted perceived humane treatment of the repentant terrorists with the cruel deprivations they caused many victims of their past misadventure. With more than 40,000 persons killed, more than two million in internally displaced persons camps, and conflict-related food emergency threatening some 4.4million people, questions have been asked whether plea for forgiveness was sufficient restitution by the surrendering insurgents. The bile was perhaps best illustrated by a widow, Mrs. Oluwaseun Sakaba whose husband, Lieutenant-Col. I. Sakaba, was one of 44 soldiers killed by insurgents during an attack on 157 Task Force Battalion in Metele, Guzamala council area of Borno State in November 2018. Writing on her Instagram page after the Army shared pictures of repentant terrorists with placards seeking forgiveness from Nigerians, she said: “It will not be well with you (terrorists). I should forgive you for making me a widow. I should forgive you for making my children fatherless. I should forgive them for making many women and children widows and fatherless.” Many others, however, argued from necessity. The military is receiving the defectors humanely and showing it off apparently to motivate those still holding back in the insurgency to give up. It further argued in its statement that the army would “never encourage any act of lawlessness or extra-judicial killings; accordingly, all surrendered terrorists will be received, processed and passed on to the relevant agencies of government for further assessment in line with extant provisions.” For his part, Borno State Governor Babagana Zulum canvassed seizing the occasion to prospect for lasting peace in sharp departure from the mayhem of the last 12 years. “I think this is an opportunity for us to harness,” he said in a broadcast where he noted that state residents had two tough options to choose from: to accept the repentant insurgents, or reject them and create a situation where they could join another terrorist group and continue to fight. He promised to engage in high level consultations with all stakeholders on the best way forward.

The apparent break in Boko Haram insurgency is one big relief, but it isn’t the end of Nigeria’s insecurity woes. In recent weeks, bandits ran riot in Plateau, Zamfara, Katsina and Kaduna states  killing scores and abducting many more; and that is not counting many abducted school children who have been in captivity for months and years. Herdsmen militias also remain on the prowl.  Compared with unruly mercantile motivations of the bandits, dealing with ideological-minded insurgents was a cake pie. But these criminals must also be reined in for Nigerians to know peace. Yes, the security forces earned their triumphant vibes over the insurgency, but it isn’t yet Uhuru regarding insecurity.

CORRECTION: In my piece last week titled ‘IBB, history and revision’ I erroneously referred to former Head, Interim National Government (ING) as “the late Chief Ernest Shonekan.” Chief Shonekan is alive and about. The error is regretted.