Welcome to a giddy season

 It’s the dawn of a new year, 2022, and it is by divine mercy we are here. Neither the worldwide Covid-19 pandemic nor domestic challenges of insecurity and other sorts have kept us from coming this far, and whatever it is you believe in shouldn’t hinder you from recognising it is providential grace we’ve benefitted from. So, here’s to say: congratulations and wishes of a bountiful new year ahead. But with the 2023 general elections barely 12 months away, we must also face up to the fact that we are into an electioneering year that promises all the rough and tumble associated with such a period. Welcome, therefore, to a giddy season.

The just expired year closed with President Muhammadu Buhari’s refusal to sign into law the Electoral Act (Amendment) Bill 2021 that was passed by the National Assembly and forwarded for presidential assent on 19th November. And that denial of presidential assent stalled hopes of drastic reforms expected to further strengthen Nigeria’s electoral system. Although a letter by the President to NASS dated 19th December and subsequent elaborations by key presidency officials adduced painstaking reason for withholding executive assent to the legislation, there were indications of grave displeasure among the legislators and even a momentary threat of overturning the presidential veto. Only that threat fizzled out as swiftly as it was mooted because the House of Representatives proceeded immediately on Christmas/New Year recess, and the Senate that delayed its recess by some 24hours stood down further action until members’ return in view the constitutional necessity of acting in concert with the House over the presidential veto. Both chambers, however, managed to pass the 2022 appropriation bill of  N17.13trillion that was signed into law last Friday, 31st December, by President Buhari.

As the national legislature was going off on the end-of-year recess, the presiding officers of both chambers assured the public they would revisit the electoral bill and decide one way or the other on the presidential veto immediately the members reconvene on 18th January. “By the time we come back, at least as far as the House is concerned and I’m sure the Senate as well, it will be the first thing on our agenda the very week we come back from recess,’’ House of Representatives Speaker Femi Gbajabiamila told journalists in the closing days of last year. Senate President Ahmad Lawan spoke in the same vein when he said the red chamber would consult with its green counterpart in January when both arms of NASS will be in session. “Presently, the House of Reps has gone or recess and like we all know, the constitutional provision is for the Senate and House of Representatives to jointly take the appropriate action,” he said in explanation of why the Senate was holding off action on the bill until after the recess.

Meanwhile, a coalition of civil society groups has undertaken an independent review of the electoral bill by which it identified drafting errors, glitches of grammar, repetition and cross-referencing gaps as well as conflicting provisions in certain sections, which it has swiftly referred back to NASS leadership for due diligence in view of the fact that one of the grounds on which President Buhari withheld assent to the 2018 Electoral (Amendment) Bill was that the document had drafting errors and cross-referencing gaps. The intention of the CSOs’ initiative was to make the legislature ensure thorough work on the new bill before sending it back for presidential assent as earliest as that is possible in the new year. And this is helpful very because the realistic option open to NASS is to urgently rework the bill to Buhari’s taste and send it back for his assent in the new year. If you are yet hoping for an override of the presidential veto, perish the thought because the legislature made clear at the close of last year it would not antagonise the President or act on knee jerk. Besides, this is an electioneering year, and with the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC)  controlling both chambers of the NASS, party interest will take precedence in holding off APC lawmakers from aligning with the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to humiliate the President. This is not the United States where a lone rebel Democrat senator, Joe Manchin of West Virginia, is ditching President Joe Biden’s signature social spending and climate change bill, and in effect the entire electoral platform of his party for the Biden administration,  by refusing to vote the bill in a Senate split 50-50 with the Republicans, hence where there’s no way of passing the bill with any Democrat vote withheld.

“The option open to NASS is to urgently rework the bill to Buhari’s taste and send it back for his assent…If you are yet hoping for an override of the presidential veto, perish the thought.”

This new year will as well see all political parties registered by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) throw up their candidates for the 2023 general election, most importantly pertaining to the presidency and governorship offices. All attention will naturally be on the ruling APC and opposition PDP, but some smaller parties may hold the turf as beautiful brides to be courted in crowning the king. Intrigues towards this end commenced subtly in the expired year and will considerably intensify, taking on a formal air when INEC blows the whistle for commencement of electioneering activities. Then, there are the off-season Ekiti and Osun state governorship elections scheduled for the second half of the year, not to mention the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) council poll also to be conducted by INEC and fixed for 12th February. Osun State, in particular, will be interesting watch as the ruling APC wages a fierce civil war between the camps of incumbent Governor Gboyega Oyetola and his predecessor who is currently Interior Minister Rauf Aregbesola. The bitterness of the feuding between these two camps has been like they wouldn’t mind sacrificing the state to the opposition rather than have either side prevail. The coming weeks and months will show whether good sense and party interest would get the better of this scorched earth mindset. For their part, a number of states are also planning council elections for democratic renewal at that third tier of government.

One government policy that will define this new year is the pumphead price of petrol. The Buhari administration is resolved to deregulate the pricing of the essential product and has set a tentative timeline of February for the policy to kick in, even though the 2022 appropriation bill accommodates ‘subsidy’ until July. Labour has served notice, however, that it will resist the policy if it would be based on importation of fuel for domestic consumption and until government develops capacity for local refining of the product. Giddy days pertaining to this issue will begin as early as 27th January when the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) has said it would commence mobilisation rallies to protest the policy. Experience teaches that such rallies are maximally disruptive of industrial harmony and civil order, and it remains to be seen how this will rub off on government and the ruling party in an electioneering year. To restate my personal view, the arguments plied by government and its supporters for deregulating fuel price while depending on near-wholesale importation of refined products seemed like an attempt to abdicate governance and hand Nigerians over to wild international market forces. Well, with acute hardship on a citizenry already badly stretched economically that the policy is bound to entail in an electioneering year, we could dare the Buhari administration to bring it on.