Interim anarchists

It began like a rash partisan claim. But it has since gained traction as a genuine threat, having been formally corroborated by Nigeria’s secret police, the Department of State Services (DSS). Some people allegedly were plotting to foist an interim government on this country despite successful conduct of the 2023 general election by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), the commission’s return of winners elected at the polls and imminent transition to new dispensations at the national and state levels. If it were some silly joke, the joke had become like a handshake taken beyond the elbow. Masterminds of the alleged plot are ‘crazy baldheads’ that legendary Bob Marley would say should be chased out of town.

When the alarm was first raised, it was pertaining to the fuel scarcity and currency crunch suffered by Nigerians in the build-up to the national elections on 25th February and state polls on 18th March. Those crises were alleged to have been orchestrated to hinder the elections from holding as scheduled and, hence, necessitate a stop-gap arrangement upon the expiration of the present dispensation on 29th May, this year. But the elections did hold and winners have emerged, with outstanding re-run and supplementary polls conducted last Saturday, 15th April, by the electoral commission. For the presidential race, ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate Bola Ahmed Tinubu won against stiff challenge by opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and emergent third force, Labour Party (LP), and he was returned as president-elect by INEC. Winners were as well declared for other constituency races namely for the national assembly seats, the 28 states where governorship elections held, and house of assembly seats in all the 36 states.

Following the conclusion of the polls, however, and with Nigerians looking forward to a smooth transition of 29th May,  there have been speculations about moves to preempt that transition by bringing on an interim government. Nigerian politicians typically are bad losers and many have approached the courts to dispute the verdicts declared by INEC. It is well within democratic norms to do that and they can’t be faulted so long as they press their objections strictly before the courts, which is something the country’s constitution permits. On another front though, politicians have spoken recklessly about their electoral loss and the victory of co-contenders. A notorious example is LP’s vice-presidential candidate Datti Baba-Ahmed who on live television argued that inaugurating Tinubu as president on 29th May would constitute an illegality and upend democracy in Nigeria, and called on President Muhammadu Buhari and Chief Justice of Nigeria (CJN) Olukayode Ariwoola not to swear in the president-elect. It was an unguarded comment in the extreme unbecoming of someone who had aspired to the No. 2 office in this land, and who with his principal and party platform had already approached the tribunal to ply their petition challenging the poll outcome. But in the quest  to grow our democracy, we must learn to live with even such talk if it were limited to just that – talking and doing nothing more sinister, especially not inciting gullible Nigerians to lawless action. Neither Mr. President nor the CJN are expected to be guided by such lose talk anyway, and so it could be overlooked or ignored though it stretches the boundary of free speech. That would be a price to pay for our subscription to democracy. Besides, democracy allows for verbal rejoinders – a right that has been exercised notably by Nobel Laureate Wole Soyinka, among others. 

What intolerably overreaches the bounds of democracy is action that disrupts societal peace or actively seeks to upset the constitutional order. For instance, some demonstrators recently chose the precincts of the Defence Headquarters in Abuja to protest the outcome of the presidential election. It was by no means a mere coincidence, as any intelligent observer could see it was a veiled invitation to the military to intervene in the political process. Even then, democracy triumphed as the protesters got away without being arrested, apparently because they were not violent.

“Interim government: It’s a wild idea that simply isn’t feasible”

But the DSS has said there was indeed a plan by a section of the political class to foist an interim government on the country and truncate smooth transition of power on 29th May from President Muhammadu Buhari to President-elect Tinubu. According to a statement by the service’s spokesman, Peter Afunanya, the agency uncovered a plot to that end by key political actors who he failed to name. The secret police said planners of the interim government plot had held several meetings during which they weighed various options to actualise their plan including sponsoring subversive protests in major cities and make the space ungovernable, so to warrant declaration of a state of emergency. The masterminds also reportedly planned to obtain frivolous court injunctions to stop the inauguration of incoming executive and legislative administrations at the federal and state levels. The statement added inter alia: “DSS considers the plot being pursued by these entrenched interests as not only an aberration but a mischievous way to set aside the Constitution and undermine civil rule as well as plunge the country into avoidable crisis.”

If it wasn’t DSS that made the allegation, it might not have gained the traction it did because of the sheer illogic of the plot. Indications are that the purported plot wasn’t thought through. No sensible actor should hope to foist an interim government on this country because the path to such extreme illegality is not as  paved as suggested. An interim government does not drop from the sky into office. It has to be first constituted, and then handed over to. By who under the present circumstance is difficult to see. When the late Ernest Shonekan-led interim government was to be installed in office 30 years ago following the crisis that trailed the annulment of June 12, 1993 presidential election won by Chief Moshood Abiola, it was constituted and handed over to by General Ibrahim Babangida who could not withstand the backlash of civil crisis incurred by that annulment. Even that government was lame and lasted only 82 days before it was swept aside in a putsch on 17th November, 1993 by the late General Sani Abacha. Seven days earlier – on 10th November, 1993 – the interim government was declared illegal by Justice Dolapo Akinsanya who ruled that Babangida had no power to validly sign a decree after 26th August, 1993, which was the effective date of his resignation. If the elaborately crafted Shonekan-led interim government didn’t stand, it is hard to see how one can be rustled up by anarchists  and have a survival chance. In any event, there doesn’t seem to exist an equivalent of Babangida in the current establishment who would act as facilitator. It’s a wild idea that simply isn’t feasible.

Still, it is useful DSS raised the red flag, if only to jar the masterminds out of their futile delusion. Many have queried the secret police as to why it did not arrest identified plotters. But chances are, it would be playing smack into the hands of anarchists to make arrests perceived as partisan witch-hunt when sympathies associated with the just-concluded elections are still so raw. Partisan mobs would be incensed and public order disrupted. Anarchists would hide behind the fury of emotions to foment the crisis the arrests of masterminds were aimed at forestalling. It would be one perfect storm against the 29th May transition, as anarchists would have a perfect alibi handed them on a platter. The incoming administration would be saddled with a fractious and rowdy polity that could hobble its take-off and even exhaust it prematurely. Nobody would benefit from such scenario other than the same bad losers arrested on the strength of preemptive intelligence.

No, we do not have a perfect democracy. But we’re better off with  bad temperaments in national conversation than to collapse the conversation into a fascistic crisis. Wisdom calls.