Kenya and debt trap dance

 When he swept to power in an against-the-odds election some two years ago, Kenyan President William Ruto touted himself as “hustler-in-chief.” It was a tag he adopted in identification with the struggling masses of his country and in deliberate distinction, apparently, from the privileged minority.  It would seem Kenyan masses can’t recognise him as what he purported and are up in arms.

Ruto was vice-president for 10 years under ex-President Uhuru Kenyatta and should have been the establishment candidate in the August 2022 poll. He, however, claimed he was sidelined from decision-making in the Kenyatta era and ran as an outsider against the power of incumbency that was pitched in favour of veteran contender Raila Odinga. He ran on the platform of a nascent party against Odinga’s platform that had rallied Kenyatta’s ruling party, among others, into a coalition. Ruto framed the contest as between “hustlers” – poor and hard-working Kenyans (his party’s symbol was a wheelbarrow) – and “dynasties” – influential families like the Kenyattas and Odingas who had been big players in Kenyan politics since Independence. “I may be the son of a nobody, but I promise to make Kenya the country of everybody,” he said in his campaign pitch that resonated with voters.

But like American lawyer and three-term governor of New York, the late Mario Cuomo, once said, you get to govern in prose after you had campaigned in poetry. Ruto has hit a storm with Kenyan “hustlers” who fought down a tax hike law he inspired and scaled up to pushing for his ouster from power. They staged a three-week-long programme of street actions billed to culminate yesterday in a ‘vigil’ in honour of some 40 persons who have gotten killed by Kenyan police since the protests began. The president, who wavered initially between saying the protests had been hijacked by criminals and promising talks with participants, eventually dumped the contentious legislation called Finance Bill 2024. Demonstrators however pressed ahead with street actions, saying while it was the tax bill that triggered their protest, they were now driven by grievances with the way Kenya was being run by overly paid officials who live in indulgent luxury while imposing austerity on the public.

Frustration among Kenyans with the state of the economy and government’s perceived insensitivity to the plight of citizens had been brewing for some while, but the breakout of protests caught the authorities by surprise. Ruto during the 2022 electioneering had promised to tackle the cost-of-living crisis and place “hustlers” at the heart of his policy priorities. But upon taking office, he found the country’s finances in dire straits. Kenya’s national debt stands at more than $80billion, which is about three quarters of its annual economic output and not less than 65 percent of yearly revenue going on servicing debt. The administration’s response has been to eliminate subsidies left in place by Kenyatta, notably the subsidy on fuel. Other measures to raise revenue included a five percent hike in income tax for high earners and three percent housing levy designed to raise funds for provisioning of low-income housing, imposed on employees and employers. In May, the country’s National Treasury unveiled additional proposals to raise revenue for the 2024-2025 financial year. These were the proposals contained in the bill that sparked public anger. The policy slate outlined by the legislation included imposing a 16 percent value added tax on bread and introducing an ‘eco tax’ on products considered harmful to the environment – a levy that would have raised the price of items like sanitary towels, nappies, packaging plastics and tyres. Aiming to raise $2.7billion towards relieving the debt burden, the bill also proposed a digital tax that would have affected most Kenyans since more than 80 percent use mobile money or digital payment services, a social health tax, taxes on specialist hospital care and on small businesses, among others. These measures were in line with the Ruto administration’s commitment on facilities Kenya took from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. 

“The debt trap dance is a reality of many African countries, including Nigeria, and Kenya is only a mirror on the wall.”

The proposals elicited fierce opposition from Kenyan public, but the government insisted they were necessary to finance public spending. Having a majority in parliament, it was on course to have its way. But an unusual front of dissent emerged, namely a leaderless rally of youths who mobilised themselves through the social media to take a stand against government’s set course. Historically, political opposition in Kenya played the part of mobilising supporters to reject government policies; but this time, young Kenyan digitally mobilised on their own to voice their discontent. The hashtag #REJECTFINANCEBILL2024 went viral over the weekend of 15th June, with many youths calling for protests to press their case. On TikTok, dozens circulated videos highlighting the harm government’s policies were causing.

Street action began on 18th June with a march staged by thousands of Kenyan youths to coincide with the second reading of the finance bill in parliament. The movement at first drew widespread praise for peaceful conduct, in striking contrast to opposition-led protests that usually took the form of riots. Demonstrators reportedly rallied from diverse ethnicities and regions, plying highly articulate and issue-based demands that drove conversation in mainstream and social media about the state of Kenyan economy. Despite the public mood, however, parliament on 20th June voted to move the legislation to the next stage. Decrying the vote as insensitive, protesters called larger demonstrations for 25th June that lawmakers scheduled a final vote.

Still, the Ruto government seemed blindsided by the scope of the movement and the speed at which it fanned across the country, with big cities and small towns experiencing protests. The movement gathered steam as protesters pressed grievances that originated from the finance bill, but pointed to a much wider plate of grievances. In particular, the protesters raged at government’s disposition to impose steep tax hikes while doing little to curb spending among Kenya’s notoriously coddled political class. Pictures circulated about lavish lifestyles of the ruling elite, while social media users highlighted what they saw as unnecessary budget lines like funds set aside for renovation of the president’s and deputy president’s official residences, and funds dedicated for use by the president’s and deputy president’s spouses. In a 22nd June live discussion on X digital space that drew thousands of participants, citizens demanded fundamental changes in governance to address challenges like youth unemployment in the country of 54 million people, a third of whom live in poverty.

In its response, Ruto’s administration vacillated between repression and accommodation of the agitators. On 20th June, the police used tear gas and live ammunition to disperse protesters, killing two and injuring dozens. There were also reports of some notable agitators being seized by security agencies and gotten released within 24 hours upon social media outcry. Days later, which was parliament’s day of decision, protesters staged a countrywide street action to urge the legislators to rethink. Reports described the scale and geographic spread of the protests as striking, with marches taking place in most big cities and small towns.

Whereas the protests started off peacefully in the early hours of 25th June, however, the police in Nairobi enacted their typical response to unrest by firing tear gas and water cannons into unarmed crowds. It was at some point in the stand-off that the peaceful gatherings degenerated into violent protests. At the assembly precincts, protesters massed on policemen guarding the parliament building, broke through the barricades and stormed the chamber where they seized the assembly mace and set parts of the parliament building on fire. Lawmakers who hours earlier passed the finance bill at its final reading were smuggled out to safety after first huddling in the chamber’s basement. Outside the chamber, mayhem raged as the police fought running battles with protesters and shot live rounds into the crowds. Protesters on their part torched several buildings, with some vandalising and looting at the city centre. By the time the dust settled, more than three dozens of protesters had been felled by police bullets. Outside the capital, hundreds of protesters marched in cities and rural towns, carrying palm fronds, blowing on plastic horns and beating on drums as they chanted “Ruto must go!”

Despite threats of dealing a hard tackle against the demonstrators, Ruto on the next day withheld assent to the finance bill. He said the deficit would instead be covered by reductions in government spending and additional borrowings, details of which he provided at the weekend. Demonstrators, however, weren’t assuaged and they carried their street actions further through the weekend.

Now, let’s call developments in Kenya the debt trap dance. The debt trap dance is a reality of many African countries, including Nigeria, and Kenya is only a mirror on the wall.