When opposition is jinxed

Much unlike in the golden years of Mwalimu Julius Nyerere, who was fondly called ‘Teacher,’ Tanzania now runs a tainted democracy. Criticisms of the country’s recent general election centred on the restriction of opposition players from participating. President Samia Suluhu Hassan, the first female leader of the East African nation, won a landslide victory in the October 29 poll that was marred by violent protests, an internet shutdown and a brutal clampdown on protesters.

President Hassan was declared winner with nearly 98 percent of the votes to secure a second term. In her victory speech, she said the election was “free and democratic” and accused protesters of being “unpatriotic.” Opposition parties, however, rejected the results, calling the vote a mockery of democracy because serious challengers of Hassan were either in prison or barred from running. International observers voiced concern over lack of transparency and widespread turmoil that reportedly left hundreds of people dead and many injured. Internet shutdown made it difficult to verify the toll amid exertions by government to play down the scale of the violence, with the authorities extending a curfew slammed into place to quell the unrest.

Hassan’s ruling party Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), and its predecessor Tanganyika African National Union (TANU), have dominated Tanzanian politics and have never lost election since Independence in 1961. Declaring her winner of the recent presidential vote, Tanzania’s electoral commission said she polled 97.66 percent of total votes cast in an election with turnout nearing 87 percent of the country's 37.6million registered voters. 

Madame president first took power in 2021 following the sudden death of her predecessor, John Magufuli. Appearing at an event at the administrative capital, Dodoma, to receive her certificate of return from electoral authorities, she said Tanzanians voted overwhelmingly for female leadership and now that the election was over, “it’s time to unite our country and not destroy what we’ve built over more than six decades.” She signalled a tough line on security, though, saying: “We will take all actions and involve all security agencies to ensure the country is peaceful.”

But a major opposition party, Chadema, which was barred from contesting the poll, slammed Hassan’s victory as a charade. “We are calling for intervention by a credible body to oversee another fresh election,” the spokesperson told a media outlet. Reports said there were two serious opposition contenders but one was held on treason charges, which he denied, while the other was excluded from the vote on legal technicalities. Sixteen fringe parties were allowed to run, but none of them historically had significant public support.

The presidential and parliamentary elections set off days of violent protests as demonstrators accused Hassan’s government of suppressing opposition. Chadema’s spokesperson said some 700 people were killed in clashes with security forces, and there was no way of independently verifying the claim because of nationwide Internet shutdown. But the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) cited diplomatic sources in Tanzania saying there was credible evidence that at least 500 people had died. Despite heavy security presence, election day tailspinned into chaos with demonstrators tearing down banners of government officials and setting fire to government buildings, and police firing tear gas and gunshots according to reports quoting eyewitnesses. Internet connectivity watchdogs said access to social media and mobile internet was restricted across several cities during and after the vote. Tanzanian foreign minister, however, downplayed the violence as “few isolated pockets of incidents here and there,” adding that “security forces acted very swiftly and decisively to address the situation.”

During her speech in Dodoma, Hassan said the protesters by their actions were neither responsible nor patriotic. “When it comes to the security of Tanzania, there is no debate – we must use all available security avenues to ensure the country remains safe,” she stated. Rights groups accused her of overseeing a “wave of terror” in the country before the vote, including a string of high-profile abductions that escalated in the final days leading up to the poll. But the government rejected criticisms of its human rights record.

“It would be more honest to say big egos were under threat, not democracy per se”

Bottomline is that Tanzania became an object of global infamy. Spokesman to United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said in a statement that he was “deeply concerned” about the situation in Tanzania, “including reports of deaths and injuries during the demonstrations.” African Union chair Mahmoud Ali Youssouf congratulated Hassan in a statement on X, but also said he deeply regretted the loss of human life in electoral violence and extended sincere condolences to families of the victims. Alex Vines, Africa director of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), said there had been “a campaign of harassment and intimidation” towards the opposition in Tanzania. “It clearly is not a credible election. This is a very serious crackdown. There are many young Tanzanians, who think they have been left behind,” he argued in a conversation with Al Jazeera from London.

Tanzanian opposition won the sympathy of international interests because they were seen to be repressed by the CCM government of President Hassan. Like CCM in Tanzania, the Nigerian political space is currently dominated by the All Progressives Congress (APC). But that isn’t because Nigerian opposition is repressed, rather it is mortally wounded and disabled by self-inflicted factional crises. Genuine democracy everywhere thrives on virile opposition, and it would be in the interest of Nigerian democracy to have a formidable opposition that could keep the ruling party on its toes. But opposition in the country is prostrate because members are not minded to pull together in the greater interest of democracy and renounce narrow interests informed by their personal ambitions. That is what hobbles the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and the party can’t hope for help from without if members would not grow up and put their house in order.

PDP national headquarters in Abuja came under lock by security personnel last week because factions unsettled public peace with their scheduling of rival meetings by which they hoped to gain control of the secretariat. The rival plans expectedly threw the party base into chaos, which the police had to step in to contain. But new factional party chairman, Kabiru Turaki, played the victim: he invited United States President Donald Trump  to save Nigerian democracy that he said was under threat from anti-democratic elements. Besides Trump, he urged other advanced democracies to intervene in safeguarding Nigeria’s democratic system. “I want to call on President Trump… What is at stake is not just genocide against Christians, he should come and save democracy in Nigeria. Democracy is under threat. I am also calling on all other developed nations, all advanced democracies, come and save Nigeria, come and save democracy,” Turaki said.

The embattled factional party chair was obviously referencing a recent threat by Trump that the American military might be ordered to invade Nigeria and strike against radical Islamic terrorists responsible for alleged attacks on Christians if the Nigerian government wouldn’t act. In a statement, the U.S. leader claimed Christianity in Nigeria faced existential threat because radical Islamists were killing thousands of the country’s Christian population. He, thus, designated Nigeria a “Country of Particular Concern” for allegedly violating religious freedom.

It was bad enough that Turaki adopted the American claim without interrogation or insider-knowledge qualification. His faction of the PDP is in a tussle for the party’s soul with another faction aligned with Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Minister Nyesom Wike and led by factional scribe, Samuel Anyanwu. It would be more honest to say big egos were under threat, not democracy per se. Turaki knew this too well and willfully sold the international community a red herring about Nigerian democracy being under threat. That was not helpful – neither for Nigerian democracy nor the electorate. What the country needs is for opposition players to get their acts together and pose a viable challenge to the ruling party for voters’ sake.