Voter enthusiasm in power politics

With the notoriously slim profile of voter turnout for the recent 2019 general election, it may well be that the bulk of Nigerian electors are letting go the handle on who assumes political power in this country to designs from sheer expedience by the political class.

The 2019 poll has been widely rated as recording the lowest voter turnout in all of elections that have been held under the present republic, which is into its 20^th year. This contrasts ironically with the swarming field of power contenders in this latest poll, compared to the contest fields for all previous elections. That is to say while the political elite are getting increasingly motivated to throw their hats in the ring for the power pie, voters who should make the choices from among them are inversely getting demotivated from stepping up to the plate.

Official data showed that voter turnout for the presidential election held on February 23^rd was about 34.7 percent – representing a rollback on records for the 2015 poll, which was about 43.7 percent; 2011, 54 percent; 2007, 58 percent; 2003, 69 percent and 1999, a slight edge beyond 52 percent of respective registered voter population.

Besides the dip in domestic profile, the turnout for the latest presidential poll is reckoned as the lowest of all recent elections held in Africa, and second lowest ever in the entire electoral history of the continent. The lowest is the 32.3 percent turnout recorded in the 1996 Zimbabwean presidential poll. According to a data set by reputed non-governmental agency, the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (International IDEA), which was reported by the International Centre for Investigative Reporting (ICIR) in its newsletter, Rwanda fielded the highest voter turnout of 98.2 percent in its 2017 presidential election. Other countries in the ‘top ten’ league are Equatorial Guinea (2016), 92.7 percent; Angola (2017), 90.4 percent; Seychelles (2016), 90.1 percent; Guinea Bissau (2019), 89.3 percent; Zimbabwe (2018), 86.8 percent; Sierra Leone (2018), 84.2 percent; Kenya (2017), 79.5 percent, Liberia (2017), 75.2 percent and Burundi (2015), 73.4 percent. On the other hand, the ‘bottom ten’ are Cote d’Ivoire (2018), 52.9 percent; Algeria (2017), 49.4 percent; Mozambique (2018), 48.6 percent; Sudan (2015), 46.4 percent; Sao Tome and Principe (2018), 46.1 percent; Democratic Republic of Congo (2018), 45.4 percent; Mali (2018), 42.7 percent; Egypt (2018), 41.1 percent; Cape Verde (2016), 35.5 percent and Nigeria (2019), 34.7 percent.

If you thought the low turnout for the Nigerian national poll was worrisome, you had more to bemoan in the voter outing for the governorship and state houses of assembly elections held a fortnight later. But the seeming voter disinterest is far from being evenly shared across the country. According to a report last week by PUNCH newspaper, which cited official data aggregation by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), no state in southern Nigeria made up to 50 percent turnout in the March 9^th state elections. Delta State made the highest cut at 48 percent of voters with permanent voter cards; and Akwa Ibom, 37 percent, among the others. Lagos, with the highest number of registered voters nationally out of which some 5.5million picked their PVCs before the poll, had less than 19 percent of those eligible voters showing up. Yet, at least in relative terms, many of these southern states have better security environment, compared with the other regions.    

On the other hand, Jigawa State fielded a high turnout at 72 percent of voters with permanent voter cards; Sokoto, 60 percent and Borno, 57 percent despite a long-running challenge with Boko Haram insurgency and displacement of many residents. Others include Plateau State with 54 percent turnout; Taraba, 54 percent; Kaduna, 53 percent and Adamawa, 50 percent. The catch is, talking about security, many of these states are acutely challenged with deadly communal strife.

‘While the political elite are getting increasingly motivated to throw their hats in the ring, voters…are getting demotivated from stepping up to the plate’

The differing levels of voter enthusiasm had as well been evidenced in the sheer statistics of registration and subsequent collection of permanent voter cards – statistics that were made public by INEC before the general election. Of the 84,004,084 registered voters that the electoral body reported to be on its roll, for instance, Lagos has the highest number with 6,570,291 voters, while Kano State runs up with 5,457,747 voters. But in geo-political totals, the North-west zone has the highest number of 20,158,100; South-west, 16,292,212; North-central, 13,366,070; South-south, 12,841,279; North-east, 11,289,293 and South-east, 10,052,236.

In percentage collection of permanent voter cards by those registered voters ahead of the poll, however, the ‘top ten’ states were Katsina, 98.69 percent; Taraba, 97.30 percent; Gombe, 95.76 percent; Kebbi, 95.13 percent; Bauchi, 94.84 percent; Zamfara, 94.74 percent; Kaduna, 92.79 percent; Yobe, 92.39 percent; Enugu, 91.95 percent and Anambra, 91.21 percent. Among the others, Lagos with its highest voter population size came up with 84.19 percent of PVC collection. The ‘bottom ten’ were Kwara, 81.76 percent; Ondo, 81.13 percent; Edo, 78.11 percent; Jigawa, 77.01 percent; the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), 76.36 percent; Osun, 75.37 percent; Imo, 74.91 percent; Oyo, 74.17 percent; Ekiti, 73.25 percent and Ogun, 71.36 percent.

It should be apparent that the foregoing pattern indicates the general disposition of electors in respective state / geo-political zone towards the political process and, ultimately, the power dynamics in this country. As such, it isn’t strange to find on election days many eligible voters in those areas where enthusiasm is low applying themselves to non-electoral commitments rather than pitch in at polling centres to vote; whereas voters in areas where enthusiasm is high troop out and form long queues to exercise their franchise. In the final analysis, they effectively determine where the power balance tilts.

Voter behaviour such as this should explain why it is difficult, indeed impracticable, for a presidential contender to make any headway with his / her aspiration without connecting with voters and securing victory in strategic states and geo-political zones, no matter the credibility appeal of their manifesto. In the last presidential poll in particular, that was the undoing of the candidatures of Obiageli Ezekwesili of the Allied Congress Party of Nigeria (ACPN) before she quit close to the day of election, Kingsley Moghalu of the Young Peoples Party (YPP), Fela Durotoye of the Alliance for New Nigeria (ANN), Tope Fasua of the Abundant Nigeria Renewal Party (ANRP) and Gbenga Olawepo-Hashim Peoples Trust (PT), among others. It is also why aspirations by youthful candidates have been dead ended, though eligible electors between ages 18 and 50 presently constitute more than two-thirds of the voter roll, and despite statutory boost from the Not Too Young to Run Act.

But the power elite, out of apparent motivations to lock down block votes through appeal to ethnic and geo-political sentiments of voters, often make it seem like political power is to be handed out on those primordial terms. That is the import of the so-called zoning formula, isn’t it? But trust me, it’s all a ruse! It is voters who register, pick up their permanent voter cards ahead balloting and eventually turn out on election days who determine where power goes.

A major undercurrent of the electioneering that led up to the February 23^rd presidential vote, for instance, is the carrot of where presidential power will devolve in 2023. But besides that the major political parties have not been exact about their touted zoning formulae, conventional wisdom teaches that power is never served a la carte, it is taken. Barring fraudulent infractions of the electoral process by political desperadoes, it is voters who take power when they turn out to exercise their franchise on election days. That is why it is imperative that eligible voters always turn out to vote.