Blackout incorporated

Listen up in many places across this country, especially in the largely industrial Lagos and Southwest axes, and you would hear mainly tales of woe about the power supply situation. The dominant experience of consumers is relentless blackout (the technical term is ‘load shedding’), with unpredictable / unreliable ‘snags’ of power availability. Bottom line: the economic and social lives of many citizens are badly hobbled as they bear the bitter brunt of this critical infrastructure deficit.

The power sector, by the instrumentality of the Electric Power Sector Reform Act 2005, has been decentralised into sub-sectorial components that are substantially privatised and not directly under the government’s thumb rule. While the Generating Companies (GenCos) are wholly in private hands, the Transmission Company remains in government ownership and the Distribution Companies (DisCos) are 60 percent privately-controlled, with the government retaining 40 percent ownership stake in them. But even with those reforms, challenges have persisted with power supply efficiency. Those challenges show up as a relay of fault lines along the industry operational chain, such that the efficiency of one subsector of operators is almost perennially undermined by emergent failings of other subsectorial operators. But then, the notorious buck has never found a more expansive field of play anywhere than in the power industry where respective subsector of operators almost always deflect responsibility for overall supply inefficiency, which is the bitter pill that ultimately get served to consumers.

Thus, the persisting challenge of inefficient power supply has been a relentless blame game between the government with oversight responsibility for the sector, and the generating, transmission and distribution companies respectively that are the industry operators. While some industry observers would hold generating firms culpable of not putting out sufficient volume of power, GenCos have argued there isn’t enough capacity on the part of the transmission company to wheel what they already produce. Meanwhile, there is a broad consensus that DisCos are the weakest link in the operational chain – with broken transformers and burnt-out switches, among many faulty equipment that impede power supply.    

Two weekends ago, there was a plunge in generation level resulting in prolonged power outage in the Lagos and Southwest axes. The load loss was said to have been necessitated by emergency maintenance work that the Nigerian Gas Company (NGC) – a subsidiary of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) – had to do on its Escravos-Lagos pipeline that delivers gas to Egbin, Omotosho, Olorunsogo and Papalanto power stations. According to a statement by the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN), which was widely reported in the media, the national grid lost substantial power load owing to a leakage in the Escravos-Lagos pipeline, “necessitating total shutdown of the four power generating plants on 25^th April, 2019.”

While the TCN reassured consumers that the faulty pipeline was being fixed and was nearly back on stream, it made known also that it had diverted some 312megawatts (mw) from the Benin-Egbin transmission line, which tripped off on 23^rd April, to Omotosho-Ikeja West and Ayede-Ikeja transmission lines. The statement added: “The tripping was caused by a line cut between Ofosu and Okada towns…Due to the diversion of the load from this line to the two transmission lines feeding Lagos axis, load shedding in Lagos axis was minimised to about 280mw at the first instance. However with the attendant gas supply issues and sudden gas leakage problem, load shedding increased considerably.”

‘The reality of consumers is that power output remains critically short, with blackout being ‘supplied’ in a more generous dose by the industry than power’

Distribution companies as well kicked the can for that outage to the generation and transmission subsectors. Ikeja Electric, in a notice to consumers on its network, attributed the outage to low allocation from the TCN, which it assured the transmission firm was working hard to redress. In similar vein, Eko Electricity Distribution Company blamed poor output from its network on a fault at the Egbin-Benin 330kv transmission line that had constrained supply from Egbin power plant, which feeds its operations.

But the GenCos themselves have not been quiet on who to blame for the recurrent blackout, citing defects on the part of TCN and DisCos for supply inefficiency being experienced by consumers. The generating firms boasted an increase in power generation level to about 8,000mw, which they said the transmission company lacks capacity to wheel. They also accused the DisCos of short-shrifting with revenue collected from consumers for power procured from them (the GenCos).

Executive Secretary, Association of Power Generation Companies (APCG), Joy Ogaji, was reported saying in a statement: “Unless the challenges in the power chain are tackled, power output will continue to be poor. The generation companies are ready and willing to generate power that will sustain the country on a daily basis, but they are being constrained by factors beyond their control. If power output must improve, the transmission and distribution arms of the power chain must be strictly regulated. The transmission grid must be upgraded to ensure the 8,000mw available from GenCos is put on the grid. The distributors (DisCos) must be strictly monitored to ensure revenues collected for electricity supplied is remitted…The GenCos are having a current market invoice shortfall of over 75 percent. The question is, which business can survive on a 25 percent monthly invoice payment? Are Nigerians not willing or able to pay for the power generated?”

Energetic Power, Works and Housing Minister Babatunde Fashola, who himself once repudiated responsibility for chronic inefficiencies of the sector, recently cited 8,100mw transmission capacity as of December 2018. He also said some areas within the country already were experiencing constant power supply. Speaking late in March on a Channels Television programme, he stated inter alia: “Sitting down here I can tell you some states that have almost 24 hours – Kebbi, Yobe. Some have five, some have 10 and there are still outages…The transmission capacity has grown. The last simulation that we did in December 2018 was 8,100. The generation capacities are also increasing. But it’s a value chain where the distribution optic is not matching up with the available power; and, of course, from time to time there are snags in the value chain: maybe a 33KVA line goes, maybe gas issues, maintenance even in some places require shutdown and we still don’t have enough power…”

We shouldn’t bother highlighting the conflict between Mr. Fashola’s claim of 8,100mw as the latest transmission capacity and the GenCos’ narrative about TCN lacking the capacity to absorb the 8,000mw they presently produce. Even then, it is unlikely many Nigerians share the minister’s positive outlook on the industry’s output; and it is instructive the few bright spots he cited are low density areas – thereby obviously conceding the contrary experience of a place like Lagos, which has profound implications for Nigerian industrial economy. Both the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) and the Manufacturing Association of Nigeria (MAN), among other industrial bodies, reported that their members were being compelled to incur huge overheads on alternative electricity generation for their operations, with some contemplating relocation out of Nigeria.  

But it is as well helpful the minister acknowledged persisting challenges with overall delivery of power to consumers. To be sure, the reality of consumers is that power output remains critically short, with blackout being ‘supplied’ in a more generous dose by the industry than power. This reality is indeed indicated by the operators’ endless excuses for why they ultimately can’t deliver to consumers.

It seems obvious that the biggest hurdles before the power industry are decayed infrastructure, which break down at recurrent intervals, and the failure of subsectorial operators to seamlessly coordinate their functions for overall efficiency. As President Muhammadu Buhari gets ready for his second term of office, it may be useful to consider carving out a solo agenda ministry of power that would focus on infrastructure renewal in the sector and oversight coordination of the industry operators for seamless co-efficiency.