‘Hard war’ isn’t enough

If we take the word of Borno State Governor Babagana Zulum as gospel, it was a disaster foretold yet not averted. Terrorists struck with impunity in Auno, Konduga council area of Borno, penultimate Sunday, leaving blood and charred bodies in their wake. Some 30 travellers were reported killed, most of them burnt to death during their lay-by sleepover at the rural community on Damaturu-Maiduguri road. More than 20 others were abducted and herded away by the assailants, who left 18 vehicles and other items razed in a fiery monument to their demented exploits.

The travellers had been compelled to lie over because military personnel manning the highway had locked up the thoroughfare at a checkpoint they mounted close to the Auno community. There is a curfew regime on the highway effective from 5p.m. daily; and even though many of the travellers got to the point a little past 5p.m., they were forced to spend the night there because of the lockout by soldiers who deserted the post.

When terrorists stormed in at about 9.50p.m., it was an open season of unbridled violence against the hapless travellers. Reports said they started a wild fire by igniting a parked fuel laden tanker with grenade, which upon bursting into flames lit up other vehicles parked close by and incinerating sleeping occupants. Some travellers spared that hoary fate were corralled at gunpoint by the terrorists into vehicles with which they made a crowdy getaway.

An outraged Governor Zulum, during a visit to the attack scene, said there was prior intelligence by the Department of State Security that fell through the crack. “Information was circulated and we got a security report from DSS that Jakana could be attacked, and they came and attacked as predicted,” he lamented.

The governor was also angry that military personnel locked out travellers at the checkpoint and were nowhere nearby when the terrorists struck. “Since my inauguration as governor of Borno State, Auno town has been attacked about six times. And the reason is that the military have withdrawn from the town. We have made repeated pleas to the military to re-establish a base in Auno since it is one of the flashpoints of the Boko Haram (insurgency), but nothing has been done to that effect… As soon as it is 5 o’clock and they close up their gate, they abandon the people and move over to Maiduguri,” he said.

The military, for their part, explained that operational designs did not allow for personnel to remain at the checkpoint after nightfall. Operation Lafiya Dole Theatre Commander, Major-Gen. Olusegun Adeniyi, said: “The military is conducting an intense counter-insurgency, which makes us work 24hours a day, especially on the Maiduguri-Damaturu road. By day we are busy securing the road, ensuring that commuters are able to move…and by night we go after these (insurgents) that are coming to attack people in their communities. The Army usually carries out its night attack and ambushes on Boko Haram with the understanding that the road has been closed to commuters and there are no vehicles on the road.”

He blamed travellers for this latest attack, which he said was avoidable if they had kept to the ban on plying the road after 5p.m.

There has in recent times been a spike in security breaches, costing lives and limbs of many Nigerians and prompting high profile calls for a sweeping change in the security high command. The porous security situation nationwide has also inspired regional self-help initiatives, such as the nascent Southwest network codenamed Operation Amotekun. Amidst the crisis, the standard tack by the Muhammadu Buhari presidency has been to shore up the mechanistic capacity of security agencies. This is the ‘hard war’ from which stemmed access lockouts as preceded the Auno attack. Few days before that incident, President Buhari reaffirmed commitment to fortifying the military for the hard war as he inaugurated some Nigerian Air Force helicopters in Abuja.

‘While strengthening the mechanistic capacity of security agencies for hard war, government should as well deepen its soft war competences’  

But serial and fatal security breaches as we have experienced in recent history – involving banditry, bloody communal clashes as well as terrorist strikes and executions of unarmed abductees – index the insufficiency of mechanistic approach to tackling insecurity. Legendary Chinese leader, the late Chairman Mao, expounded the psychological dimension of warfare that he considered more crucial in victory strategy. Other proponents of ‘soft war’ approach like Carl von Clausewitz argued that a vital success strategy in war is to alienate fighting armies from base populations, since people provide the passions that drive fighting zeal.

Not that this is one theory far fetched, as casual application would show. President Buhari during his sympathy visit to Maiduguri, last Wednesday, over the Auno attack (he curiously didn’t think it necessary to get to the epicentre) canvassed intelligence sharing and synergy between security operatives and the civil populace. “Boko Haram can’t come into Maiduguri or the environs without the local leadership knowing because traditionally, the local leadership is in charge of security in their respective area,” he said. Earlier, Chief of Army Staff Tukur Buratai was reported saying the Army had not been able to wipe out Boko Haramists, who kicked-off their insurgency since 2009, because their leaders and recruiters live in communities and mix with locals.

While strengthening the mechanistic capacity of security agencies for hard war, government should as well deepen its soft war competences. For instance, from where do terrorists get their funding, and who/what are the conduit channels? Even if most of their arms are leftovers from Gadhafi’s war in Libya, where and by who have these been warehoused and are being dispensed for use by contemporary terrorists? How do we alienate criminal suspects from base populations, such that persons wanted by the law are not shielded by lawful kindred to escape the law? The point being made is that government needs to pay attention to the soft war just as it is doing with the hard war.

Judicial Electoral Commission

Nigeria’s political system has settled into the last never being heard of electoral verdicts until the judiciary has spoken. And when the judiciary speaks, it atimes radically overturns the order arising from Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) pronouncements. Politicians much of the time work for this outcome, such that they scoff when INEC declares election winners and just look ahead to judicial declarations.

Last week, the Supreme Court overturned the election of David Lyon of the All Progressives Congress (APC) as governor of Bayelsa State barely 24hours before he was to be sworn into office. This verdict resulted from Lyon’s running mate, Biobarakuma Degi-Eremieoyo, having filed fake credentials with INEC for the 16^th November, 2019 governorship election. The apex court ordered that the Certificate of Return issued to Lyon be withdrawn by INEC and re-issued to the next candidate with highest votes and geographical spread in the poll, which happens to be Duoye Diri of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). 

Even if INEC knew with certitude that Degi-Eremieoyo filed phony documents for the governorship poll, there was nothing it could by itself do to block him given Section 31(1) of the Electoral Act 2010, as Amended. It is based on this provision also that after the electoral commission had monitored primary elections of political parties, some parties foist persons who had not even participated in primaries as their candidates with INEC not being able to reject such imposition.

Amid ongoing efforts to rework this country’s electoral laws, this particular provision should be reviewed to enable INEC to do better gate keeping; such that elementary issues like phony documentation by gladiators would not discredit the entire electoral system, rubbish INEC and reserve authentic electoral declarations for a Judicial Electoral Commission.