Respite and the pandemic

With formal expiration this Monday of the hard lockdown on the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Lagos and Ogun states, energies are on rebound as Nigeria revs from the coma brought on by restrictions necessitated hitherto by the Covid-19 pandemic. But let’s be clear: respite is coming in lockdown measures. The pandemic is yet very much with us, only that life must go on as we get a handle on strategies to halt its spread.

 After five weeks of being in force, the presidential lockdown on the three jurisdictions regarded as hot spots of the pandemic – Ogun State merely for its close interconnectedness with Lagos – gives way from Monday to gradual restoration of socio-economic vibrancy. Other states not under presidential lockdown and rather with self-imposed restrictions are billed to align with the relaxation of restrictions. Only Kano State is exempt owing to a surge in coronavirus infections there. A two-week presidential lockdown slammed on that state last week is to last another week, and that may just well be in the first instance.

President Muhammadu Buhari gave the nod for easing the restrictions in his last national broadcast, in which he acknowledged that lockdowns imposed by the federal and state governments had come with huge economic costs. “Many of our citizens have lost their means of livelihood. Many businesses have shut down. No country can afford the full impact of a sustained lockdown while awaiting the development of vaccines,” he said. It was a spot-on appraisal of reality that indexed his being at grips with experiences of Nigerians at the grassroots.

The president explained that the objective of the new thrust is to ensure the Nigerian economy continues to function amidst efforts to tackle down Covid-19. Obviously, this is an objective and mission shared with many other countries presently wrestling with the challenge of the pandemic. He said there would be a phased and gradual easing of lockdown measures particularly in the three jurisdictions, but state governors may adapt and expand guidelines to be provided “based on their unique circumstances, provided they maintain alignment with the guidelines.”

Unveiling details of the new policy direction later last week, the Presidential Task Force on Covid-19 said the economy would be gradually re-streamed over six weeks in three phases of two weeks each. Government ministries, departments and agencies are reopening Monday, 4^th May, but with staggered attendance by workers based on different salary grade levels – just so to prevent clogging up spaces. Banks also and organisations in construction, manufacturing, food processing and pharmaceutical sectors got the nod to be unshuttered. But they have strict preconditional rules of hygiene to comply with. The task force said banks could operate from 8am to 2pm daily while observing all precautions put in place by government, just as all other outfits reopening shop. Among others, neighbourhood markets that had been in operation hitherto under strict terms of hygiene will continue on same standard, so also supermarts and retail stores. Eateries and restaurants could open but would not be available for eat-ins, only takeaways and home deliveries. Schools are to remain shut, however, until future review as students get on with e-learning on alternative platforms. All social events, religious gatherings and air travels other than for essential missions remain suspended.

‘The hard lockdown hitherto has been ruinous, but hasty abandon of caution could be much more so’

In line with the presidential broadcast, the task force as well detailed fresh measures aimed at leashing the pandemic. These include a dusk-to-dawn (8pm-6am) nationwide curfew except for persons on essential services, an indefinite ban on non-essential inter-state passenger travels, partial and regulated inter-state transportation of goods and services, and mandatory use of facemasks in public added to maintaining physical distancing and personal hygiene.

At sub-national level, Lagos State Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu led the way in issuing domesticated regulations aligning in the main with the federally prescribed guidelines. Few peculiarities include operational hours for Lagos banks from 9am to 3pm daily, and that banks must ensure regular cleaning and decontamination of their Automated Teller Machine (ATM) points. Organisations are to operate at 60 percent capacity of their workforce on site, while the outstanding 40 percent work from home. Official hours across board are from 9am to 3pm, including for markets and stalls that would be allowed only on select days. Public transportation operators are to strictly comply with 60 percent-max utilisation of installed capacities, while commercial motorcycles known as ‘Okada’ are suspended from all roads in the state. It’s a no brainer highlighting here mandatory use of facemasks in public, which the state administration had championed even before it became a national cause.

Again, in the rebound from the paralysis occasioned by lockdown measures until now, sight must not be lost on Covid-19 being yet very much around. Running ahead of this fact or living in denial of it is suicidal and risks a fresh and far more lethal wave of the pandemic. This was the point the World Health Organisation (WHO) persuasively made penultimate week when it warned countries against haste in letting down their guard lest they unwittingly incur a resurgence of the pandemic.

For us in Nigeria, our eyes must stay on the ball of breaking the virus transmission chain. Without doubt, the hard lockdown hitherto has been ruinous, but hasty abandon of caution could be much more so. Government, by its tentative approach to restarting the economy, has shown the way in living this reality. It is now for citizens – you and I – to diligently align with this cautious mode. Some state governments that have gone ahead with excessive liberality in unwinding from lockdown need to be circumspect; that would be in enlightened self-interest, not just of the states concerned but also the entire nation.

Nigerian statistics of the pandemic comparative to other countries further mandates this caution. The figure of confirmed infections is low relative to most other nations, but so is the level of testing especially in the context of population size. As at midday last Friday, this country, according to official data from the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC), had notched up nearly 2,000 confirmed cases of coronavirus infection. But total samples tested thus far were about 15,800 persons, in an estimated population of 200million. In comparison, Ghana’s official case count was about 2,100, with some 170,000 tests conducted among that country’s 30million population. Similarly, South Africa’s official case count was about 5,700, from nearly 210,000 testings conducted among its 50million population. Meanwhile, unlike what nominal figures suggest, Nigeria’s infection rate is far higher at about 13 percent case count from the test population size, as against Ghana’s roughly one percent and South Africa’s three percent.

Of course, the country is upscaling its testing capacity: presently with at least 15 laboratories having underutilized aggregate capacity for 2,500 tests daily. But the low ratio of actual testings compared to gross population portends a high number of unaccounted cases likely to hasten a tipping point in the pandemic if extra caution isn’t exercised in how citizens appropriate the respite in lockdown measures.

Nothing could be more instructive in this regard than the experience of the 1918 Spanish flu in which many millions died. According to historical narratives, the pandemic lasted two years and occurred in three waves – with most deaths occurring in the second wave because people overreached relaxation of restrictions that had attended the first wave. It will be a tragic failure to learn from history if deliberate care is not taken to prevent a second wave of Covid-19 pandemic.