All-losers’ conflict

 A fragile ceasefire is holding between Israel and Iran in the hostility that flared between them following a surprise air strike launched by Israel on 13th June. Interestingly, it is the United States, which inserted itself 21st June as a combatant on the side of Israel, that brokered the ceasefire deal. That the truce got a breathing chance of being enacted is indication of exhaustion of firepower on the part of the core combatants, Iran and Israel; but more likely, on the part of Iran that is the aggressed in this instance and which suffered the greater loss. What the world must wait to see is whether that exhaustion came with conviction to give peace a chance in the volatile region, or it was just a tactical retreat to buy time for rearmament.

Israel, which has been at war with Palestinian militant group Hamas in Gaza since 2023, turned on Iran penultimate week – attacking its nuclear capabilities and killing top Iranian military commanders in the worst blow to the Islamic republic since its battle with Iraq in the 1980s. Unlike the Iran-Iraqi war that dragged for eight years, the battle with Israel lasted only 12 days. Iran is an avowed sponsor of Hamas and other militias in enmity with Israel, like the Hezbollah, and it has never hidden its intention to facilitate Israel’s extermination. In October 2024, Iran rained missiles on the Jewish state in reprisal for Israel’s hunt for militants that impinged on its territory. That spat did not result in full-blown war because ex-U.S. President Joe Biden leashed Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and arrowheaded an alliance that powered Israel’s Iron Dome air defence system to prevent the Iranian missiles from hitting home on Israeli soil. 

Israel’s current war with Hamas gave occasion for renewed hostility with Iran that was this time not restrained – no thanks to shared disposition between Netanyahu and incumbent U.S. President Donald Trump over suspicions that Iran is trying to build nuclear weapons with its uranium enrichment efforts. Iran denies it is trying to build such weapons and says its nuclear research is for civilian energy production, only that few people believe its narrative. Trump tried talking with the Islamic republic like his immediate predecessors, and touted military option if negotiations don’t work. Following Israel’s recent attack, Iran responded with a barrage of missiles on Israeli military sites and cities. But Israel apparently worked to distract Iran and make it more vulnerable than it ordinarily might have been, preparatory to strikes on its nuclear sites by the U.S. In other words, they tag-teamed.

Israel significantly degraded Iran’s air defenses and offensive missile capabilities and damaged its overground nuclear enrichment facilities. But only the American military has bunker-buster bombs that offered the best chance of destroying sites deep underground. Penultimate Saturday, Trump ordered the strikes by which the U.S. deployed seven stealth B-2 bombers, each carrying two bunker busters weighing an impressive 30,000 pounds apiece to blast Iran’s nuclear laboratories in Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan buried in Iranian mountainsides. The unprecedented operation reportedly involved more than 125 aircraft including refueling tankers, reconnaissance planes, fighter jets besides the bombers.

On the heels of the attack, Trump announced that the operation “completely and fully obliterated” the Iranian nuclear sites. But the Pentagon, in a subsequent briefing, reported “sustained, extremely severe damage and destruction.” Netanyahu too was restrained in his assessment, saying the U.S. attack left the nuclear facility at Fordow with “very significant damage.” The Israeli leader gave indication of working hand in gloves with the American president by saying Israel did not have to commit to end the war in Gaza in exchange for American bombers targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities. “President Trump didn’t put any conditions. This is not the nature of our relationship, I have to say,” he told journalists. “We speak openly. We speak as friends, genuine friends. And he’s a great leader. He makes the decisions for America,” he added. Netanyahu also disclosed that he was notified of the American operation in advance: “That’s natural. Just as he (Trump) knew in advance when we would act, we knew in advance when he would act.”

“Israel-Iran war: All actors, including America, got their nose bloodied, though at varying degrees.”

Intelligence findings by the Trump administration since the air strikes have indicated that Iran’s enriched uranium stocks were not eliminated and the country’s nuclear programme may have been set back only a month or two. Defence intelligence operatives in Washington were reported saying the strikes sealed off entrances to two of the sites, but did not destroy the buildings underground. Some centrifuges remained intact after the attacks, according to Washington Post citing unnamed sources familiar with the report. Administration officials also openly recalibrated the strikes’ impact assessment, telling the United Nations Security Council mid-last week that they “degraded” Iran’s nuclear program – short of the president’s earlier assertion that the facilities were obliterated.

Despite Trump’s warning of additional strikes if Iran retaliates against U.S. forces, the Islamic republic launched an attack on America’s military base in Qatar last Monday. Iranian missiles targeted the base, which is U.S.’s largest in the Mideast, in what Tehran said was a response to the bombing of its three nuclear facilities. The Qatar base is reported to be the headquarters for all American air operations in the region. A statement by the Iranian government said it will not leave any attack on its sovereignty unanswered, adding: “U.S. bases in the region are not strengths but vulnerabilities.” There were differing accounts of how many missiles were fired: Iran said six, the U.S. said 14, and Qatar was cited saying 19 – all of which, it added, were intercepted, with no one reported killed or injured.

Unlike the U.S. attack on Iranian nuclear sites that was by surprise, reports said Tehran notified Doha in advance of its intention to strike the U.S. base, just so to minimise casualties. In his first comments in the aftermath, Trump thanked Iran for “giving us early notice, which made it possible for no lives to be lost and nobody injured.” He described the attack as “very weak” – no Americans were harmed and very little damage was done, he noted. “They've gotten it all out of their system,” he added and said peace in the region could now proceed. On the next day, the American leader brokered a ceasefire that Israel and Iran signed up to.

Both countries claimed the upper hand in the conflict. Iran’s military command warned Israel and the U.S. to learn from the “crushing blows” it delivered in the hostility, with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian saying his country ended the war in “great victory.” For its part, Israel said the attack on Iran had removed the threat of nuclear annihilation and it was determined to thwart any attempt by Tehran to revive its weapons program. “We have removed two immediate existential threats to us: the threat of nuclear annihilation and the threat of annihilation by 20,000 ballistic missiles,” Netanyahu said. He earlier told journalists that the operation in Iran helped to achieve his country’s goal in Gaza as Iran could no longer support Hamas, which should hasten the militant group’s demise. “Once that reality sinks into the ranks of Hamas, you’re already entering the final phase of decision,” Netanyahu said, adding: “It will take a little more time, but there’s no doubt that our major achievements in Iran are also contributing to achieving our goals in Gaza.”

Truth is that all actors in the conflict, including America, got their nose bloodied, though at varying degrees. Iran was the biggest loser. Even Tehran plied the narrative that 610 people were killed by Israeli strikes on its soil while 4,746 got injured, compared with Iran’s retaliatory bombardment that killed 28 people in Israel. Oil prices plunged on the global spot market upon indication that Iran couldn’t muster the clout as widely feared to disrupt critical oil supplies from the Gulf by blocking the strategic Strait of Hormuz lying within its reach. Worse, there was no single country or group even within the region that rallied to Iran’s side in the war. Nothing showed the republic’s isolation and limitation more than the latest war with Israel.

Israel as well suffered some humiliation, in that it was the first time its air defenses were penetrated by large numbers of Iranian missiles. Unlike in 2024 when the missiles were intercepted nearly wholesale, Trump’s America was not there for Israel this time to enable it achieve same defensive feat. Rather, the Jewish state was used as a foil – unprotected – for America’s own agenda.

But the U.S. itself did not win. It wanted to obliterate Iran’s nuclear capacity and only came off with “severe damage” to the programme. So much for being a superpower! Simply put, this was an all-losers’ war.