The trial of Bolsonaro

 Brazil is currently in a battle for the soul of its democracy. The country is calling former President Jair Bolsonaro to account for alleged bid to sabotage that nascent dispensation after a bitter past under military dictatorships that she would not want reenacted. But she faces a heavy blowback from regional neighbour and supposed bastion of democracy, the United States of America, which has taken sides with Bolsonaro. Nothing could rank higher in conceptual contradiction if not understood through personality of incumbent American leader, President Donald Trump.

Bolsonaro was earlier this month sentenced to 27 years and three months in prison after being found guilty of plotting a military coup. A panel of five supreme court justices handed down the sentence hours after they convicted the former leader. Four of the judges held that he was guilty of leading a conspiracy aimed at staying on in power after he lost the 2022 election to his left-wing rival, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The supreme court panel also barred him from running for public office until 2060 – eight years after the end of his sentence. That could well read: he is being barred for life, because the far-right former president is 70 years of age and has reported health challenges that saw him taken to hospital at least twice since the apex court delivered its verdict on 11th September.

“Nothing hazards stability and progress in a country like desperate politicians, because they typically want their way or the highway”

The ex-president was found guilty of five charges, all relating to his attempt to cling to power after he was beaten in the 2022 election. Prosecutors said he started plotting to stay in power long before that, though, proposing a coup to military commanders and sowing unfounded doubts about Brazil’s electoral system. They also said Bolsonaro abetted a plan to assassinate Lula and his running mate in the 2022 poll, as well as a supreme court justice. While the coup plot failed to garner enough support from the military to go ahead, it did result in the storming of government buildings by Bolsonaro’s supporters on 8th January, 2023, prosecutors argued. Order was swiftly restored by security personnel, with more than 1,500 people arrested. The justices were persuaded the ex-president led a conspiracy and held him liable. They also convicted seven of his co-conspirators, including senior military officers. Among them were two former defence ministers, a former spy chief and former security minster.

The presiding justice at the trial, Alexandre de Moraes, argued that Brazil came close to relapsing back into authoritarianism. “We are slowly forgetting that Brazil almost returned to its 20-year dictatorship because a criminal organisation, comprised of a political group, doesn't know how to lose elections,” he stated before casting his guilty vote. Another justice and the only female on the panel, Cármen Lúcia, said Brazil’s democracy was put at risk and there should be no immunity for authoritarianism. “This criminal case is almost a meeting point between Brazil and its past, its present and its future,” she added in allusion to Brazil’s chequered history of military coups before voting to convict Bolsonaro. According to her, there was ample evidence that the ex-president acted with the intent of eroding democracy and sabotaging democratic institutions. The only dissenting voice on the five-member panel was Luiz Fux, who argued that the accusations against Bolsonaro were unfounded and questioned the court’s jurisdiction, thus voting to acquit him.

The majority verdict made Bolsonaro, a former army captain who never hid his admiration for the military dictatorships that ruled Brazil for decades, the first former president of that country to be convicted for attacking democracy. It also marked the first time since Brazil became a republic that military officers were being called to account for plotting to topple democracy. Charges for which the ex-president and his co-conspirators were found guilty include taking part in an armed criminal organisation, attempting to violently overthrow democracy, organising a coup, and damaging government property as well as protected cultural assets.

Bolsonaro has been under house arrest since August because he was deemed a flight risk, and he did not attend his sentencing in person. But he said before the verdict that the trial was aimed at preventing him from running in the 2026 presidential election, even though he was already barred from public office on separate charges. He also called the trial a “witch-hunt.” His lawyers described the sentence as “absurdly excessive” and said they would file appropriate appeals. They are expected to argue that he should be kept under house arrest instead of being moved to prison. They may also challenge the conviction, but legal experts said they faced an uphill task as that is normally possible if two of the five justices voted to acquit.

His claim of a witch-hunt, however, resonated with the Trump administration in the U.S., which has stacked sanctions against Brazil and Brazilian officials. In July, President Trump slammed 50 percent tariff on Brazilian goods that he framed as retaliation for Bolsonaro’s ‘persecution.’ Reacting to the guilty verdict, he said he found it “very surprising” and compared it to his own experience: “That's very much like they tried to do with me, but they didn't get away with it.” The U.S. leader had often asserted that he shares a kindred spirit with Bolsonaro because he was himself criminally indicted for trying to stay in power after his 2020 election loss to former President Joe Biden. Asked about the conviction, he again praised the ex-Brazilian president and called the verdict “a terrible thing,” adding: “I think it’s very bad for Brazil.” Besides the general tariff hike, his administration imposed targeted sanctions against Brazilian officials, including yanking U.S. visas held by many of the supreme court justices, their family members and other judiciary officers.

 U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio echoed his principal’s narrative in a post on X, saying Brazil’s supreme court ruled unjustly to imprison Bolsonaro and threatened to “respond accordingly to this witch-hunt.” Brazil’s foreign ministry reacted swiftly that “threats like the one made by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, in a statement that attacks Brazilian authority and ignores the facts and the compelling evidence on record, will not intimidate our democracy.”

President Lula himself had slammed Trump’s sleight of hand. He called the 50 percent tariff measure “not only misguided but illogical.” Hours before Bolsonaro’s conviction was confirmed, he told journalists he harboured no worries about new sanctions from the U.S., in what signalled deepening diplomatic rift between the western hemisphere’s two largest democracies.

As a far-right populist politician, Bolsonaro has his own supporters and his sentencing divided the country. Congressmen allied with the former president are already processing a legislation that could secure him amnesty. But that bid is not flying with many in the Brazilian public, with an estimated 400,000 people staging a demonstration penultimate weekend against what they dubbed “banditry bill.” President Lula himself was reported saying he would veto the bill if it passes at both chambers of the national legislature. Meanwhile, Alexandre de Moraes, the justice who presided at the supreme court trial, stood firm on judicial independence despite being hit with U.S. sanctions. “Respect comes from independence. A subservient, cowardly judiciary, one that makes deals just to calm the country down, is not independent,” he said ahead of the supreme court verdict.

Brazil’s current rough patch in nationhood is down to the failure of political actors to gracefully accept defeat in elections. Nothing hazards stability and progress in a country like desperate politicians, because they typically want their way or the highway. Bolsonaro was president from 2019 to 2022 and, going by the supreme court’s findings, he preferred to instigate a coup against the democratic order because he could not stand being defeated at the poll. As he faced a tough re-election battle with Lula in 2022 that Lula went on to win, his comments took on a do-or-die tone. “I have three alternatives for my future: being arrested, killed, or victory,” he said in remarks to a meeting of evangelical leaders. “No man on Earth will threaten me.” In 2023, Brazil’s electoral court barred him from public office until 2030 for venting unfounded claims about the country’s electronic voting system.

Nigeria has few things to learn from Brazil’s experience. Political actors must imbibe graceful sportsmanship if they would not cross the law like Bolsonaro did. And the judiciary must be a steady bulwark against all pressure nodes in asserting independence. All said, Brazilian democracy should be stronger from this experience.