Revolving door of old empire

Since the United Kingdom exited the European Union bloc in 2016, i.e. Brexit, No. 10 Downing Street has become a veritable bed-and-board for short stays. Prime Minsters come and go in rapid succession, with the seat of British government now awaiting its seventh occupant within a decade.  Vacancy opened up again with Keir Starmer announcing his resignation last Monday after just two years in the saddle.

Sir Keir was elected leader of the Labour Party in April 2020 and became prime minister on 5th July, 2024 following Labour’s landslide general election win. He will leave Downing Street as the shortest-serving Labour prime minister in history. His time in office is taking longer than those of his immediate predecessors from the Conservative Party, namely Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss, but will be behind all six previous Labour prime ministers.

Speaking in Downing Street early last week, Starmer acknowledged he was not best placed to lead Labour into the next general election and had informed King Charles III of his decision to step down. He announced that he had asked Labour’s governing body to set out a timetable to replace him, with nominations opening on 9th July and ending by the summer recess on 16th July. He was bowing to mutiny within his party, saying the party had asked “whether I am best placed to lead us into the next general election.” He added: “I have heard the answer of my parliamentary party to that question, and I accept that answer with good grace.”

A successor is waiting in the wings. Andy Burnham, former mayor of Greater Manchester, emerged frontrunner to replace Starmer after he secured an emphatic win in the recent Makerfield by-election. He was sworn into the British parliament early last week, and as the one most likely to become new Labour Party leader, he will be the next British prime minister. Burnham is a popular Labour politician, and he has said he would formally seek to replace Starmer, calling the transition “a positive process of renewal for our party and our country.”

And Burnham looks headed for an unchallenged run for the premiership. He’s  received endorsement from potential challengers in the Labour leadership race, notably Wes Streeting, a former health secretary, meaning the party will most likely avoid a bruising and divisive contest. “We could spend the summer exaggerating small differences, or we can roll up our sleeves and help him (Burnham) to deliver the change our party and our country needs,” Streeting wrote in a statement.

Starmer took the helm when Labour won a large parliamentary majority in the 2024 poll, ending 14 years of Tory leadership. His standing got damaged earlier this year by revelations about his decision to appoint Peter Mandelson as ambassador to the United States despite Mandelson’s ties to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. But it was Labour’s devastating losses in local elections last May that marked a deal breaker for many in the party. In those local elections, Labour suffered heavy losses whereas far-right Reform UK party made major gains. Labour lost 1,496 council seats, while Reform secured 1,453 councillorship positions – mostly from Labour – and took control of 14 councils. The elections were widely seen as a referendum on Starmer himself.

On the other hand, Burnham demonstrated a potential to be the scourge of Reform UK. In the Makerfield by-poll, he won 55 percent of the ballot, finishing more than 9,200 votes ahead of Reform’s candidate. There is obviously expectation among Labour Party members that he could stretch that streak nationwide in their party’s favour to arrest Reform’s momentum.

Starmer’s resignation followed months of pressure from Labour MPs and cabinet ministers, many of whom had grown increasingly wary about the party’s electoral chances amid the rapid rise of Reform UK. Critics linked declining support among parts of the party’s progressive base to the outgoing premier’s policies, and mounting electoral pressure fuelled concerns about the party’s prospects at the next general election that must be held not later than July 2029.

“In Nigeria, those who inferred from Starmer’s resignation a cue for the current leadership are either illiterate or mischievous”

When Sir Keir led his party to a resounding election victory in 2024, he promised remedy to years of Conservative Party turmoil that had seen a quick succession of leaders come through 10 Downing Street. Now he, too, is stepping down, underscoring the revolving door that has become a feature of Britain’s volatile politics in the post-Brexit era. It is a long way, for instance, from the era of Tony Blair who spent 10 full years in the saddle. After him was the relatively brief spell of Gordon Brown, who held fort a little shy of three years. David Cameron succeeded him and was in office for more than six years. Then Brexit happened under Cameron. He called a referendum on the country’s withdrawal from the European Union in an attempt to keep his Conservative Party united. He campaigned for Britain to remain in the bloc, and when a slim majority voted on June 23, 2016, in favor of leaving, he announced plans to step down.

Prime ministers have come in rapid sequence following Cameron’s resignation. His successor, Theresa May, faced her own struggles as she took on the complex task of navigating Britain’s departure from the EU. Hard-line euroskeptics in the Conservative Party rebelled against May, who favored a softer Brexit that would have kept Britain largely within the bloc’s economic orbit. Her plan failed to pass parliament three times, and in May 2019 she threw in the towel. May was succeeded by Boris Johnson, a former mayor of London and one of her most vocal critics, who managed to secure a Brexit deal from parliament. Known for his brash persona, he was eventually brought down by a series of scandals, including parties held in Downing Street that defied his own government’s coronavirus lockdown rules. 

Johnson resigned in 2022 after three years in office. Liz Truss succeeded him and lasted just 50 days in office, holding the record as Britain’s shortest-serving prime minister, famously outlasted in her final days in office by a head of lettuce. Her introduction of an unfunded tax plan proved disastrous to the economy – the British pound fell to its lowest ever level against the dollar – prompting her party to swiftly ousted her. Then came Rishi Sunak, who made history as the first British prime minister of Indian heritage. He was seen as far more competent than Ms. Truss, but the preceding years of turmoil in the Conservative Party had dented the party’s popular support, and forced Sunak to call a general election after about a year and a half in office. The Tories lost the election, and it was on that tide Labour Party swept back to power with Keir Starmer at the helm. Two years on, Starmer has become deeply unpopular and is on his way out.

Some people have criticized the swapping out of prime ministers as undemocratic, and opposition politicians often use the moment to call for a new general election. But in Britain’s parliamentary democracy, a change of prime minister does not require a general election, as British voters do not elect a premier but rather a party to govern. It is the party that gets to decide who is at the helm.

In Nigeria, those who inferred from Starmer’s resignation a cue for the current leadership are either illiterate or mischievous. Starmer’s position as prime minister hollowed out with rising support for Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, which saw the ‘upstart’ party recording sweeping success in the last local poll. Labour MPs and supporters feared he would not be able to lead the party to a win over Reform at the next general election and, hence, showed him the door. That by no means compares with the current scenario in our country and analogy fails fatally on this score.

Starmer will say he delivered reforms in British socio-political economy, but the jury’s out on whether he delivered the right policies. History will have the last word. It always does for everyone.